With AI projected to add $15–16 trillion to global GDP by 2030, the question for Vietnam is whether it can convert current momentum into sustained, economy-wide gains before the frontier shifts again.
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| Ha Bao Tram, associate, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change |
Over the past decade, Vietnam has built one of Southeast Asia’s most dynamic digital economies, at precisely the moment when the foundations of the 6G era are being laid. Near-universal internet access of 99 per cent of the population, mobile broadband speeds among the global top 20, nationwide 5G deployment across cities and industrial zones, and a digital economy approaching nearly 20 per cent of GDP give Vietnam a rare starting advantage.
Importantly, 5G is becoming the platform on which AI-driven applications in manufacturing, logistics, cities, and public services are being tested. How effectively Vietnam uses this 5G phase will determine its position when 6G arrives.
The next phase of development is about intelligence, not access. As networks move towards AI-native 6G architectures, leadership will hinge on turning data, edge computing, and cloud capacity into real-time economic decision-making. Vietnam’s expanding data centres, cloud ecosystem, and dense digital base place it close to this shift. With AI already delivering productivity gains globally, the choice is clear: to shape the 6G transition or risk remaining an efficient adopter rather than a digital leader.
The convergence of 5G and AI is ultimately shaped-and constrained-by hardware. AI workloads rely on specialised chips, while advanced mobile networks require secure, resilient equipment capable of real-time processing at the edge.
Vietnam’s move into domestic semiconductor capability, led by Viettel’s fabrication initiative, therefore represents more than an industrial upgrade; it is a strategic investment in the foundations of long-term digital capability.
Vietnam will not rival global semiconductor foundries in the near term. However, even limited domestic chip production can materially reduce exposure to supply-chain shocks, strengthen bargaining power with global vendors, and enable more secure deployment of AI-enabled networks. In an era defined by export controls and geopolitical fragmentation, countries without any hardware capability face structural disadvantages-higher costs, delayed rollout, and limited autonomy over critical infrastructure. This industrial depth is critical to Vietnam’s path towards 6G, expected around 2030.
Countries lacking these capabilities will inherit standards rather than shape them. Vietnam’s current focus on industrial 5G, AI-enabled public services, and semiconductor capability will determine whether it enters the 6G era as an active contributor to standards or a largely downstream adopter.
Vietnam’s AI readiness has improved markedly, placing it in the top third globally and among ASEAN’s stronger performers. The adoption of the Law on AI in December, alongside the Law on Digital Technology Industry adopted last summer, signals a shift from experimentation towards institutionalisation.
This matters because regulatory uncertainty remains one of the biggest barriers to AI investment globally. Vietnam’s risk-based, human-centric approach-broadly aligned with international regulatory principles-prioritises predictability, legal clarity, and trust.
In a fragmented global tech environment, this positions Vietnam not as a regulatory outlier, but as a credible, rules-based AI jurisdiction-an increasingly important advantage for attracting long-term investment and high-quality international partnerships. However, even with robust policy frameworks, much depends on effective implementation and coordination across agencies in practice.
In reality, AI deployment remains fragmented, largely confined to pilots and isolated use cases. There is a need to shift from AI readiness to economy-wide AI absorption to advance the core central policy challenge in the next phase of development.
Globally, AI and emerging 6G development are fragmenting along standards, governance, and supply chains, favouring countries that pair credible regulation with large-scale deployment. Within ASEAN, Singapore leads on AI governance but lacks scale. Vietnam’s advantage lies in its ability to deploy AI, and eventually 6G, across a large, diverse economy spanning industry, agriculture, cities, and public services.
To capitalise on this, Vietnam should pursue a dual-track strategy seen among leading middle powers.
First, Vietnam should prioritise AI absorption at scale across the real economy. Moving beyond pilots, Vietnam should scale deployment in priority sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, agriculture, and urban services, using these as real-world test-beds.
Second, Vietnam should engage in international AI and 6G standard-setting. The EU’s emphasis on risk-based AI governance and secure digital partnerships aligns with Vietnam’s trajectory and offers a pathway for high-quality, long-term investment.
Last, Vietnam should leverage this position by acting as a bridge economy-linking regional supply chains with global governance norms at a time when China’s rapid AI and 6G expansion is increasing the value of neutral and predictable markets. The strategic imperative is clear: deploy at scale domestically while shaping rules internationally, or risk inheriting technologies and standards designed elsewhere.
