Vietnam’s domestic market is forecast to have ample room for double-digit growth from 2026-2030, driven by structural changes in the market.
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According to a report by Ministry of Industry and Trade in late December, Vietnam’s economy is expected to maintain a high growth trajectory from 2026-2030, accompanied by significant transformations to the development model. The Party has set forth the orientation for a growth model that is rapid, sustainable, and mainly driven by science, technology, innovation, digital transformation, and green transition.
The targeted average GDP growth rate for the period is 7.5-8.5 per cent per year, with efforts to reach approximately 10 per cent. GDP per capita by 2030 is expected to reach $7,400-7,600, thereby enabling Vietnam to become a developing country with a modern industrial base and upper-middle income status, ranked among the world’s 30 largest economies by GDP.
By 2030, total retail sales are projected to reach VND1.5-12.5 quadrillion, equivalent to approximately $450 billion. The figure reflects the potential of the domestic market. Vietnam’s population is projected to reach approximately 104 million people by 2030, ranking 15th globally.
Rural areas which account for roughly 60 per cent of the population are experiencing faster income growth than urban areas. As per the Party’s targets in the socioeconomic development strategy, Vietnam aims to raise rural incomes by 2.5-3 times compared to 2020 levels.
Another key driver is the digital economy, which is expected to contribute 30 per cent of GDP by 2030. Vietnam also targets to rank among the world’s top 50 countries in e-government by 2030. E-commerce is forecast to expand by around 20 per cent annually, with retail e-commerce revenue potentially reaching $70 billion by 2030 – ranking third in Southeast Asia after Thailand and Indonesia. This is coupled with the rapid development of digital payments, including e-wallets, digital banking, and online payment platforms.
Traditional distribution channels – including markets and small retail shops – still account for roughly 70 per cent of retail circulation. However, from 2026-2030, with the continued decline in the number of traditional markets and expanding investments by major retail enterprises in modern retail systems, supermarkets, convenience stores, minimarts, and e-commerce platforms will increasingly replace small-scale retail outlets. Consequently, the share of modern retail is projected to rise steadily and could reach approximately 40 per cent of total retail revenue by 2030.
The formation and expansion of omnichannel and multichannel retail ecosystems will continue. Retail enterprises will integrate online – offline channels with delivery services, operate more synchronously, enhance customer experience and interaction, and optimise data utilisation.
The report also examines the domestic trade development models, trade support policies, e-commerce development orientations, and market management mechanisms of neighbouring and comparable countries such as China and Thailand. This provides valuable lessons and policy implications for Vietnam in shaping its domestic market development strategy.
