A view of traffic in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo by Pexels
Thailand could lose up to 200 billion baht (US$6.14 billion) in export value this year if the U.S. imposes new tariffs ranging from 25%-36% on Thai goods, according to a forecast from the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC).
Thanavath Phonvichai, President of UTCC, noted that there remains a window of opportunity for Thailand to negotiate a more favorable tariff rate, potentially lowering it to 20%, before the duties are set to take effect on Aug. 1. However, he stressed that a final agreement with the U.S. is far from certain.
Further compounding concerns, he warned that domestic political instability, such as a possible dissolution of parliament or the government’s failure to pass an economic stimulus budget, could slash GDP growth by one percentage point. In such a scenario, Thailand’s economic growth could fall below 1% for the year, well under the previously projected 1.7%.
If the 25–36% tariffs remain in place for a full year, UTCC estimated that exports worth between 400–600 billion baht could be affected.
The UTCC also reported a drop in the consumer confidence index, which fell to 52.7 in June, the lowest level in 28 months, amid declining public optimism.
