Citi maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for Vietnam’s growth, despite dip in export growth.
According to Citi, stricter enforcement of rules of origin certification could exacerbate the export payback in the near term. The specifics of how transshipment will be redefined remain unclear. In April, the Vietnamese government issued a directive to strengthen the inspection and supervision of goods’ origins.
A scenario in which tighter post-deal inspection leads to export delays cannot be ruled out, potentially intensifying the expected reversal or payback of export growth in Q3.
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A Citi logo. Photo courtesy of Citi |
Citi analysts also indicated that in June, year-on-year export growth dipped slightly to 16%, down from 17% in May. Accordingly, the bank has raised its forecast for Vietnam’s 2025 GDP growth to 7%, up from the previous 6.6%.
Citi cites Vietnam’s strong economic performance in Q2 2025.
Vietnam’s GDP growth in Q2 2025 exceeded expectations at 8% YoY, compared to 7% in Q1. While the acceleration was largely driven by manufacturing (+0.5 pps), which benefited from U.S. frontloading, Citi highlights that the growth was also supported by domestically-oriented sectors.
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Minh Ngo, Vietnam Markets Head and Country Treasurer. Photo courtesy of Citi |
According to Minh Ngo, Vietnam Markets Head and Country Treasurer, Citi’s priority is connecting global clients to local markets and local clients to global opportunities to support Vietnam’s growth. Citi Vietnam is at the forefront of delivering world-class solutions in FX hedging, rates and commodities derivatives, liquidity management, and structured funding solutions for corporate, commercial, public sector, and investor clients.
“Our extensive global network and international presence provide clients with a significant competitive advantage, enabling them to navigate the evolving market landscape and optimize their operations and supply chains in response to dynamic external market conditions,” said Ngo.
