Spot gold was up 2.6% at $4,316.99 per ounce on Thursday after bullion touched a record high of $4,318.75 earlier. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 2.5% higher at $4,304.60, after touching a record high of $4,335/oz.
The yellow metal has gained over 60% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical tensions, aggressive rate-cut bets, central bank buying, de-dollarization and robust ETF inflows.
“Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the rate-cut picture heading into 2026 as well as the developments around U.S.-China. If no deal is reached between the U.S.-China and the relationship continues to deteriorate, that could be the spark gold needs to cross the $5,000/oz barrier,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA.
Investors this week have stayed focused on the simmering U.S.-China trade spat, with Washington on Wednesday criticizing China’s expanded rare earth export controls as a threat to global supply chains.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump said he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on Thursday to another summit to discuss ending the conflict in Ukraine, one day before the U.S. president was due to speak with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Traders are pricing in a 25 basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in October, and another in December, with probabilities of 98% and 95%, respectively.
Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment.
Short-term pullbacks in gold are likely to be temporary, as bullish investors tend to use dips to re-enter positions, Vawda said.
HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,355 an ounce on Wednesday, citing safe-haven demand from geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty and a weaker U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown has halted scheduled economic data, with a Treasury official warning it could cost the economy up to $15 billion a week in lost output.
Spot silver rose 1.8% to $54.04 per ounce, after hitting a record high of $54.15 earlier in the session, tracking gold’s rally and supported by tightness in the spot market.
Platinum rose 3.2% to $1,706.65 and palladium climbed 4.6% to $1,606.00.
