Shoppers browse merchandise in a shopping mall on Orchard Road, in Singapore Dec. 23, 2022. Photo by Reuters
Singapore’s economy grew 4.0% in 2024, its fastest annual pace since exiting the pandemic, accelerating from an expansion of 1.1% in 2023 and 3.8% in 2022, preliminary government data showed on Thursday.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 4.3% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, according to advance estimates from the trade ministry, above a median forecast of 3.3% in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP expanded 0.1% in the October-December period.
Maybank economist Chua Hak Bin said: “Singapore is starting the year in a sweet spot, with growth on a high and inflation at below 2%.”
“Shifting supply chains to Southeast Asia and front-loading of shipments ahead of potential higher U.S. tariffs will continue to drive manufacturing growth in the first half of 2025,” Chua said.
The trade ministry said in November it expected growth of 1.0% to 3.0% in 2025.
OCBC economist Selena Ling said the cautious forecast was realistic given current external headwinds and “is likely due to Trump 2.0 tariffs and also possibly the fading of front-loading activities”.
However, she said growth is unlikely to slow too significantly in 2025. “Assuming tariffs don’t impact Singapore directly, the 1% year-on-year floor should hold. My baseline is still about 2% given higher base”.
November’s annual inflation rate of 1.9% was the lowest in almost 3 years, creating room for the central bank to ease monetary policy at its January review, though analysts believe it might wait until later in 2025 to assess the impact of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore held policy steady at its October review as data showed the pace of activity picking up. Its next review is due before the end of the month.
